Turkish Black Sea Notam (III)
Siper's Introduction At This Time Is Intentional: GameChanger
There are two pertinent questions about the Turkish Black Sea Notam of August 2023. One, how much did Russia influence the Turkish decision? Two, were the US and France the other reasons?
ZERO SUM GAME
WHO WILL PLAY IT AGAINST TURKS?
The Turkish Black Sea Notam must be put into proper perspective. Turkiye did not only decide at will that it will close the entire Black Sea to maritime traffic. By doing so, it also told the warring parties in simple terms: Take a Break!
They obliged because they have no choice. Turkiye has leverage on both of them but more so, it also has rapport and credibility. Much like when it comes to enforcing the Montreux Agreement that closes Turkish straits to military traffic.
So what gives? After all, Turkiye is not a “declared” nuclear power. Plus, the US and NATO or Russia alone have sizable conventional power and plenty of economic and financial leverages against Turkiye.
At this stage it is better to answer the question with a question: Is there a country in the world that would be willing to play a Zero Sum Game against Turkiye or Turks when the choice of the game would be a “war”?
Turkish Black Sea Notam
No one will risk a Zero Sum Game against Turks or Turkiye. No one knows where and when Turkiye will decide that it is ready to play, that is.
So there you have it how Turkiye issued this Navtex and closed Black Sea to maritime traffic, much like the straits to warships during war time.
So why this Turkish Black Sea Notam now, then? For two reasons: One is to send a message to the US, France and the rest of the hawks in NATO. Two is to bring Russia to the table.
Deal with Russia
Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, is expected to visit Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of Turkiye in Ankara this month.
The goal is the resumption of grain shipments. The arrangement will bring grains to Turkiye for processing before shipment to the needy in the third world.
Relatedly, Turkiye most likely will assume more responsibility in the shipments. Hence, Ukraine’s attacks against Russia will also look for other alternatives.
Message to the West
Loud mouths from NATO will lose their argument regarding Black Sea. Turkiye will be in charge of Mavi Vatan waters there, as it pleases.
No NATO warship will be necessary to venture to the Black Sea. Having said that, the message to the West will not be limited with a Montreeux reminder.
The Turkish Black Sea Notam already sent an undisputable message to the US and France, stationed in Greece: Siper is an air defense system that shoots down unfriendlies.
Just To Make Sure Message Is Clear
About Turkish Black Sea Notam
Turkiye just told, in specific, to the US and France in plain language, the following, as Ismail Demir, former head of the Turkish Defense Industries, would have said it:
“I can see your military assets in the air before you can see me seeing yours.”
“I can also shoot down your military assets, long before you can hit Siper.”
“Let this Turkish Black Sea Notam be a heads-up, rather a “warning”, for you!”