Inferno & Turkiye-Israel-US Trio (II)
16 October is a milestone in this saga. Did Iran or Israel or the US play a spoiler? At this stage, they are the "Usual Suspects". No need to go into conspiracy theory, adding Russia at this juncture!
Inferno & Turkiye-Israel-US Trio (II) is now in play. 7 October to 16 October was the first episode. Let’s see how long this second episode will last. No one knows! Too many variables will play role.
The deadly chess match for Palestine began with a massive violent attack against innocent citizens. Israelis countered it with a military might, but so far, short of a ground offensive. America sent two flattops.
Meanwhile, Turkiye announced two Navtex in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. Simultaneously, Russia and China countered the American moves with naval deployment decisions to the region.
PALESTINE
According to not so trustable Globalist search engines, here is a convoluted definition of what “Palestine” is.
“Palestine” is “officially the State of Palestine”. However, it “is a state whose legal status is the subject of controversy. Although it is currently recognized by 138 of 193 United Nations member states.“
Inferno & Turkiye-Israel-US Trio
Turkiye Leads Israel and America
Turkiye has the biggest economy and military in the region. Past ten years, it demonstrated what kind of superior military technology it has. Unmatched diplomatic and political clout in the world complement the power projection on top of that.
16 October is a fact: Turkiye leads Israel & America, in this miserable Palestinian mess. World public opinion supports Turkiye. It plays cards that Israel does not have. It also employs a strategy that overwhelms America militarily and politically.
Israel
Israel has limited military options. It strikes the Gaza Strip. Indiscriminate bombings naturally kill innocent civilians. Ground offensive, on the other hand, is the only but the worst alternative. It is not a winnable option for Israel in the long run.
America
America, meanwhile, has no other viable strategy but to send the Navy. The Sixth Fleet will surely be a sitting duck in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. If and when a military conflict were to take place. Short of that, it is an invitation for “assaults”.
Inferno & Turkiye-Israel-US Trio
With Diplomatic & Military Edge
Turkiye leads Israel in negotiations.
Israel does not have leverage because it is at war. As a result, a third party has to come into the picture. America is not an acceptable interlocutor valable next to Turkiye.
Worse, America does not have any option but military posturing. Furthermore, American Navy does not have a threat power like it used to when there was a hegemony.
Diplomatic Edge of Turkiye
Turkiye interferes to resolve the conflict with diplomacy. Currently, it is the only interlocutor valabe between Israelis and Palestinians.
America, Russia, and China are not regional powers and they have biases. Egypt and Saudi Arabia have tons of shortcomings.
Iran is a pariah. As a result, Turkiye has an edge by far over everyone else. Having said that Iran always has always been a creadible “spoiler”.
Military Edge of Turkiye
Meanwhile, Turkiye also brings to the table military might like no other. Plus, Israeli-Palestinian conflict is taking place in the eastern Mediterranean Sea.
Half of this sea is claimed by Turkiye, which has the most powerful navy of the region. Not even the US Navy will dare to test the Turkish navy in these waters.
America is 7 thousand miles away. Two aircraft carrier fleets cannot simply sustain extensive war in a semi-closed sea. Against Turkiye, in the Mavi Vatan: Forget it!
Turkiye dominates the region in electronic warfare. It also has “Kurecik” factor, for those in the know. Never mind the one of a kind sophisticated missiles!
Inferno & Turkiye-Israel-US Trio
5 Facts & The Next Moves in this Chess Match
Fact 1
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Erbil Writes to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.